Friday, February 1, 2008

Year-end Data is in for Kings Forest

In the August 2007 WoodNote we talked about how the values of Kings Forest homes (in dollars per square foot) had not kept up with comparable villages Kingwood Lakes and Kings Point in the years 2001 to 2006. We’ve recently received year-end 2007 data, which we’ll add to our calculations.

We’re also adding a comparison of Kings Forest to the average of all Kingwood home values, as this larger statistical group represents a more stable picture of housing values in Northeast Houston. And we’ll look at the Consumer Price Index over the same timeframe.

First, an explanation for the data we use: we begin with 2001 because it is widely accepted as the start of the recent U.S. housing market boom, during which time median house prices went up approximately 50% across the nation. We focus on full-year results spanning a multi-year timeframe because of the relatively small size of Kings Forest and Kingwood Lakes. For example, Kings Forest sales may total only 10 to 20 houses per year, so the sale of one home at either end of the price spectrum can skew the data for a year – and makes quarter-to-quarter comparisons almost irrelevant.

Comparing Kings Forest to the average Kingwood home 2001-07:
- The average Kingwood home increased 19.3% in value.
- The average Kings Forest home increased 5.9%.

During the same period, cumulative inflation was 16.5%. On average, Kingwood homes exceeded that benchmark, but Kings Forest homes lagged significantly behind inflation.

Year-end 2007 data showed Kings Forest dollars per sq. ft. approximately even with Kings Point and higher than Kingwood Lakes:
- Kings Forest values rose to $96.13 based on some strong second-half 2007 sales, although this is only 5.9% higher than they were in 2001 ($90.75).
- Kings Point values averaged $96.54 in 2007, up from $85.73 in 2001, an increase of 12.6%.
- Kingwood Lakes averaged $82.71 in 2007, up from $73.91 in 2001, an increase of 11.9%.

Click here if you'd like to see a larger version of this chart.